Permanent Off-World Settlement
A crewed settlement off Earth — on the Moon, Mars, or another body — sustains itself year-round with continuous human habitation, resupply, and planned long-term expansion. Not a temporary expedition, but an established settlement.
- Median year
- 2052
- P10 – P90 range
- 2045 – 2070
- Probability ever occurs
- 85%
- Last reviewed
- June 2026
Humanity establishes a permanent presence beyond Earth. The settlement's significance lies not in its immediate size but in its permanence — the species has, for the first time, a second address.
Crewed missions to the Moon and possibly Mars occur within this window, but no permanent settlement is established. The gap between expedition and habitation proves larger than anticipated.
Where things stand
The public milestones make this event more plausible within the next three decades than at any prior point:
- Artemis program: NASA’s lunar return program is designed to establish a sustained lunar presence, including the Lunar Gateway orbital station. Artemis III (crewed lunar landing) has faced repeated delays; the current target window is 2026–2027. Gateway construction is planned for the late 2020s, providing a reusable orbital staging point for long-term surface operations
- SpaceX Starship: The heavy-lift vehicle serving as the backbone of both NASA lunar logistics and SpaceX’s independent Mars program completed early orbital test flights in 2023–2024. Full operational capability remains on a rolling development schedule
- Mars timeframe: SpaceX has stated aspirations for crewed Mars missions in the late 2020s–early 2030s, widely regarded as optimistic. Most aerospace analysts place first crewed Mars landing in the 2035–2045 range
The gap between “crewed expedition” and “permanent settlement” is the central uncertainty. The ISS, after 25 years of operation, still requires complete resupply from Earth. The additional challenges on the lunar surface or Mars — chronic radiation exposure, in-situ resource utilization (water extraction, oxygen production, construction materials), food production, and medical care without evacuation — represent a fundamental step change in difficulty beyond getting people there.
Permanent settlement requires continuous habitation, not rotating crew cycles. That requires a level of in-situ self-sufficiency that no crewed space program has approached. The reference year of 2052 places this in the timeframe where accumulated infrastructure investment from the 2030s–2040s could plausibly support it. The p_ever of 0.85 reflects high confidence in the direction; the uncertainty is pace.