Tracked Events
16 events across 7 domains — each with a falsifiable definition, probability estimate, and sourced timeline.
AI & Computing
4Major AI-Enabled Cyber Catastrophe
An AI-assisted attack causes nationally significant disruption to critical infrastructure — power grids, financial systems, water or healthcare networks — in a G20 economy.
Mass Knowledge-Work Automation
Software performs the majority of analysis, drafting, and decision-support tasks in a major economy's white-collar workforce — not a productivity multiplier, but a structural replacement of the category of work itself.
AGI Achieved
A software system matches or exceeds top human performance across nearly all cognitive tasks — not on a narrow benchmark, but broadly across reasoning, planning, creativity, and open-ended problem-solving. This is a purely cognitive milestone; physical presence in the world is not required and is tracked separately under Humanoid Robots at Human-Level Capability.
Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer
A quantum computer capable of running Shor's algorithm at sufficient scale to break RSA-2048 or equivalent elliptic-curve encryption — not a lab demonstration on toy key sizes, but a system that renders current public-key cryptography practically insecure.
Robotics & Automation
1Biotech & Health
3Brain-Computer Interface Reaches Mainstream Medical Use
BCI devices move from experimental or compassionate-use status to standard-of-care approval for a defined medical indication — meaning physicians routinely prescribe, insurers routinely cover, and hospitals routinely implant them.
Engineered Pathogen Outbreak
A pathogen with clear evidence of deliberate engineering — gain-of-function modifications, synthetic assembly, or otherwise — causes a significant outbreak: at least 10,000 confirmed cases or deaths attributable to the engineered agent.
First Approved Human Age-Reversal Therapy
A regulatory authority (FDA or EMA) grants market approval for a therapy demonstrated to reverse at least one hallmark of aging in humans — epigenetic age, telomere length restoration, senescent cell clearance — in a properly powered clinical trial.
Energy & Engineering
1Climate & Environment
3Extreme Weather Exceeds Adaptation Capacity
A G20 economy experiences an extreme weather event — or sequence of events — that overwhelms existing adaptation infrastructure: insurance markets fail, mass displacement occurs, or national emergency response capacity is durably exceeded.
Major Climate Tipping Point Confirmed
Scientific consensus confirms that an Earth system — the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets, or Amazon forest dieback — has passed an irreversible threshold.
Global Net-Zero Reached
Global net CO₂ emissions reach zero — total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are balanced by removals through natural sinks and engineered carbon capture.
Geopolitics & Governance
3Direct Great-Power Military Conflict
Two or more of the United States, China, or Russia enter direct — not proxy — military confrontation. This means armed engagement between their uniformed forces, not covert operations, economic coercion, or support for third-party belligerents.
Fracture of a Major Multilateral Institution
A G7/UN/WTO-level institution loses the formal participation or recognition of a major power (US, China, Russia, EU, or India) — or loses its binding authority over a core area of its mandate — in a way that is not reversed within 12 months.
Binding Global AI & Biorisk Governance Pact
A multilateral, legally binding agreement on frontier AI development or biological risk is ratified and implemented by the United States, China, the EU, and at least two other major powers — not a declaration of principles, but a treaty with enforcement mechanisms.